From the very beginning, something about gold
attracted civilizations all over the world without those civilizations ever
having made contact with each other. Not only does gold`s natural beauty make
it so mysteriously precious, but it may also be the most useful metal in the
world. Gold is also one of the few commodities that can also be thought of as a
currency or monetary asset. Many currencies around the world used to be backed
by gold until recently and, although the gold standard is long since abandoned,
gold is still very effectively used as a safe haven asset in times of economic
turmoil to preserve wealth.
The first person or civilization to discover
gold is the Ancient Egyptians. They mined gold in Nubia around 2450 BC. An
Egyptian alchemist named Zosimos was the first to find pure gold (24 centuries
before Columbus reached the Americas). The discovery of gold is attributed to
the ancient Egyptians, who made jewelry out of gold. It was at a time when
other metals were scarce and valuable.
Historians agree that the civilization of
Ancient Egypt was at its prime and had almost everything under control except
when it came to maintaining permanent sources of weight. There was an era when
even gold was relatively heavier for them than stone.
The history of gold is long connected with
money, but gold relinquished this role in developed economies after the
outbreak of the Second World War. At the end of the war, the Bretton Woods
monetary system, a regime of fixed exchange rates, was created. This system
broke down in 1971 when the US unilaterally ended its gold standard, which set
the convertibility of gold and the dollar to US$35 per ounce. References to the
Gold Standard often refer to two key periods in history: that of the Classical
Gold Standard and that of the post Bretton Woods gold-pegged exchange rate
system.
Domestic currencies were
freely convertible into gold at the fixed price and there was no restriction on
the import or export of gold. The system drawn up fixed the dollar to gold at
the existing parity of US$35 per ounce, while all other currencies had fixed,
but adjustable, exchange rates to the dollar. .
Economics Of Gold - Indian Perspective
According to some estimates, India has a stock of
about 23,000-24,000 tonnes of gold which is mostly held by households. In value
terms, based on the 2015 average price, it was worth $800 billion.
To put this into context, tech giant Apple's
market capitalisation at the same time was around $600 billion, and two of
India's largest listed companies, Reliance Industries and Tata Consultancy
Services, were quoted at around $100 billion each. The role and the impact of gold are reflected by the
gems and jewellery industry which contributes around 7 percent of the country's
gross domestic product (GDP) and 15.71 percent to India's total merchandise
exports. The gems and jewellery sector in India is one of the largest in the
world and contributes to about 29 percent of the global consumption. In FY
2014-15, the sector constituted 13.30 percent of the country's total
merchandise exports.
This
insatiable hunger for gold has resulted in India’s gold imports constituting a
massive 12.50% of its total imports in 2012-13, which is a whopping $61,409
million dollars. In 2012, the total gold production in the world stood at 4,130
tonnes, and India imported 26.12% of that (1,079 tonnes) – one fourth of the
world’s total gold production.
A
country’s exports must be more than its imports to maintain a favourable
balance and grow the per-capita income of the country. As of December 2012, we
have a current account deficit of 6.7% (experts, analysts and the RBI says that
we can sustain only with a maximum consistent deficit of up to 2.5%). To
counter this, the RBI has implemented an 80:20 system, wherein 80% of the
imports would be used to satisfy domestic demand and 20% would have to be
re-exported after value additions, by turning gold bricks into jewellery.
In
2011-12, around 56% of all the gold that was being imported came through banks
who sold it to the public in the form of coins. In 2013, the Finance Ministry
banned banks from selling gold coins in an effort to control the expanding
current account deficit (CAD).
Gold
is used in India as a form of tackling inflation, and holding an item with an
intrinsic value because of its rarity is a good way to counter the fluctuations
in fiat currency. As a traditional form of savings in India, gold instils a
feeling of comfort and security in a person’s wealth. This has been termed the
“exposure effect” by psychologists.
While
holding financial gold and gold in the form of ETFs and E-gold is a prudent
investment, holding physical gold in the form of a real asset is preferred for
the simple reason that it can be held, felt and kept safe in a box. This
experience of physically owning gold is important to Indians, and is another
reason why we like gold so much – it’s safer in terms of real value than the
Rupee, and appreciates over time.
Gold - WTI Crude Ratio
The Gold - Oil Ratio is a key indicator that indicates the health of global economy.
Since both gold and oil are denominated in Dollars, they are strongly linked .i.e as US dollar rises, commodities priced in USD falls and vice versa. Simply speaking USD and commodity prices are inversely related. Also, gold and oil is linked by inflation. Energy prices constitute a substantial portion of CPI and thus when crude rises, it affects inflation. Since gold is seen as a inflation hedging asset, it follows higher oil prices i.e as inflation rises, due to higher crude prices, the gold price also moves in the same direction as oil, so as to beat inflation. This happens as investors invest in gold, in order to hedge their portfolio against gold.
The above diagram represents the Gold – WTI Crude Ratio. For most of history, this ratio has been between 10 and 30. Anything beyond 10-30 indicates that gold is more expensive relative to oil.
The ratio spiked in 2020, due to the COVID Pandemic. This was due to combination of WTI falling to very low levels due to low demand for oil ( supply greater than demand) and rising gold prices. Economically speaking, if oil prices are coming down and gold prices are rising, it means that the economy is in very poor shape and that a recession might be around the corner.
Gold & Silver Prices
Over the past half century, gold and silver prices have shown a strong positive correlation. Historically, the Gold-Silver correlation has been in the range of .040 to 0.80.
Also, silver has outperformed gold during periods of economic expansion and tended to outperform gold during periods of economic stress.
Gold is primary used for jeweler y and investment purpose. As on 2021, 12% of total gold was used for industrial application, 28% for investments and the rest 60% for jewellery. On the other h2
Silver prices tend to follow Chinese growth with a considerable lag - Silver prices rose sharply from 2005 to 2007 following a period of strong growth in China. They then fell sharply in 2008 as China’s economy slowed a great deal during the early stages of the U.S. sub-prime crisis. Starting in 2009 Chinese growth surged as China launched a massive stimulus program that took the growth rate of its industrial sector up to 27% year on year. Silver prices soared in the wake of this extraordinary Chinese boom, eventually rising towards $50 per ounce in 2011. By this time, however, China’s economy had begun to slow sharply and silver prices fell with it. Silver’s extraordinary rebound versus gold in 2020 and 2021 may relate to the rebound in growth that China experienced in late 2020 and early 2021 as they were the first nation to emerge from pandemic lockdowns. However, China’s growth has slowed considerably this year and that might explain why silver has underperformed gold in recent months .
